Hi NL,
Good to get some meaningful analysis going again, and present ones thinking on where we are heading for the next 5-10years and importantly to give an example of why one thinks that way.
No secret that I am a big believer in KNL and the need for quality flake Graphite for years to come and the importance of being one of the first to manage to integrate their product into the supply chain with strong customers.
As we all know BIG deals are being done with Co and Li Miners...G is still lagging a bit behind, prices for Flake G have improved strongly but the BIG deals have not been made yet, this is due to China still having enough output of flake G until last year, that is now rapidly changing which is evident in the rising price of Flake G, and will intensify as we progress into 2018.
If our demo plant, currently being built in Germany, can prove to be able to produce the required quality in combination with our new acid-free purification method, then a large player in this field jumping onboard with KNL is almost certain.
Here's a copy & paste from a post I typed for one of my other stock but same thinking applies to KNL:
I can't comment much on the technology side as I have no degree in chemistry, but I have done a lot of reading in this sector over the past 4 years and have had many conversations with experts in this sector.
I can share my thinking from a business development/ strategic view of what is happening in the sector.
Millions of $ have been spent in the past ~10yrs in the search for a new battery chemistry, Thanks to TESLA and China LiB was chosen as the battery of choice and they got a solid head start on ROW Car manufactures, who evidently:
a) underestimated the speed in which China will accelerate it's EV and Storage ambitions.
and
b) where hoping to come up with a superior batter composition in the meantime.
So, a) is clear for all to see and b) appears to have failed thus creating this panicked scramble for resources needed for current chemistry LiB 's...ie nearly all major Car Manufacturers (CM's) have announced a lineup of EV's within the next 2years, there are dozens of Giga factories being built or are to break ground this year as to be able to supply LiB's for all those new EV's coming online from all the CM's around the world...to establish such a large scale supply chain to be able to supply such an unprecidented demand spike that is coming our way from about 2019-2020 will take time and a lot of $comittment from all CM's and that is what we have been seeing, it started late 2017 and is gradually gaing momentum.
So once we know that a lot of money has been & will be invested in this whole new massive supply chain...from raw materials to production lines in all those Giga Factories to years of product testing and spending millions on battery management systems/technology by each CM's...the stage is now set for Co, Ni and G to enjoy a very strong run for at least 5-10 years, during this time cost of gWh's will come down and better/ lighter metals will be introduced (Scandium would be one of the main candidates) giving longer driving ranges, so with longer driving range & lower cost per gWh the case for a new chemistry will have to be extremly compelling..I have no doubt it will eventually happen, but I'm banking on it taking many years until it ends up being mass produces in large enough quantities so that it will become cost competitive enough to replace current supply/manufacturing chain...remembering that CM's will want to get some return on their current large investments made first.
When one does a bit of research, then they will notice that a lot more G is needed to make a LiB than Co/Ni
2018 - The Year Of "The KNL"
ALL IMO
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