Looking at your scenario 1, it seems you don't have a grasp on what's happening. You say the price goes up, the price goes down...
I hate to tell you this, but it's doing a lot more down than up. Check the chart (conveniently on the right of the screen you're currently looking at). Click on the 1 year time frame, marked with a Y. You'll see that you're in an extremely strong, consistent downtrend, currently sitting around your one year low, not around where you were six months ago - well below it, and that wasn't around where you were six months earlier; that was almost four times your current price. If you want to bother looking at the chart in more depth you can find alternative sites where you can look at other timeframes, methods of depiction, etc, but for starters, just click on that Y on the right, it'll show you the basic, big, important picture you have missed.
I see the potential for EDE to get somewhere, I even briefly held a few years ago, but while this team has been brilliant at making some great new stuff, they are masters in the laboratory, they are babes in the woods full of wolves when it comes to marketing and sales. Your predictions in all scenarios seem far too optimistic to me, most obvious being your description of scenario 1, the actual scenario. They need to make some serious progress to convince the market and turn the long term downtrend around.
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