Vienna Meeting

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles" - Sun Tzu

From my conversation with Leslie the other day, I'm trying to figure out what was discussed during the ‘Vienna Meeting’, culminating in Leslie's appointment as MD. So here's my thought to myself:

I remember just prior to the CR, there was a presentation by Ursula, Cristoph & Axel. During the presentation Leslie mentioned about the ‘incredible strategy meeting’, which, as it turned out, was a way to ensure a successful CR by using Ch7 & Ch9 for exposure just before CR. In the end they raised enough capital to fully fund Ph2 & other programs. Adding to the fact that the latest meeting was held in Vienna, the HQ of the research team, I reckon there were 2 main topics discussed in Vienna meeting:
1) Market cap / share price
2) Research progress

As mentioned before, Axel has done his homework & he thinks IMU is undervalued even at $100m. He must be slightly regretting his decision to list with ASX. There was likely to be a discussion on how to bring more value to the market cap. There could be a discussion of dual listing, and also a possibility of single listing with US stock exchange & deregistering from the ASX if they feel it is still undervalued. But I think this is a last resort & they're not going to do this anytime soon.

There was also possibly a discussion on releasing raw data / empirical evidence instead of just a simple summary. I believe some of the directors want the data out in public to convince the doubters, I know at least Leslie did, but this was resisted by Ursula, as the inventor of Her-Vaxx & as an academic. They are pretty much waiting for her to give the green light.

Other than providing complete information to the public, Ursula probably wants to complete her research paper & maybe have it peer-reviewed before the raw data can be announced. Keeping this information secret is a double edged sword for Imugene. On one hand we have skeptics doubting the authenticity of the research thus keeping the market cap from sky rocketing.

On the other hand, without any analysable data, Imugene is protected from receiving a low ball offer (but attractive enough for investors) from a big pharma as they can't do their due diligence. Once the data is released, I'm pretty certain there will be no shortage of big pharmas wanting to do a deal. When will this be released? When the management is ready for a deal & when they think the market cap is valuable enough for a deal to be conducted.

Despite being undervalued in ASX, they're not in a position to list in US, nor to release the data too early. Yet wait for too long & the market cap will just drift around. Timing is key, absolutely. But what can they do to keep the impatient market entertained? I think they will employ, if not already, 2 pronged attack:

1) Push the science to overdrive mode - Nick Ede, Ursula & the science team to expedite the mimotopes & arginine so we will get more news flow around these. This is on top of the Ph1b interim result which I believe is due soon.

2) Escalate the market expansion strategy - Here Leslie, congrats you're our new MD, now go the extra mile, be a bit more business oriented, do even more presentations to stock brokers & potential investors, attend conferences & find ways so more people will be exposed to Imugene.

In conclusion:

1) There will be no deal with a big pharma until the market cap is significantly higher than the current level and the directors are ready for it. Axel is still not satisfied with the current MC. He bets his reputation as a scientist and the VP of GSK for this. You don’t often hear a VP of a big company moonlighting as a director of another company. And for GSK to allow this, they most likely have done their due diligence to ensure the science is sound enough. $100m MC is way too low considering the potential of HER-Vaxx & the mimotopes and we all know that.

2) Leslie was appointed as MD to drive the market expansion strategy. As a CEO, her job was limited to managing the company internally, now as both MD & CEO she must also look after the business side of it. Her appointment is more than just symbolic. It’s a critical part of a new strategy to ensure we have bigger market cap to prepare for a deal with the big pharmas when the complete empirical data is released, probably at the end of Ph1b.

3) They are confident of achieving their goals in Ph1b. There were already strong immune responses & no safety issues with the 1^st cohort. If the 2^nd & 3^rd cohorts do not indicate better results, they pretty much can still proceed with Ph2 based on the 1^st cohort results alone which are already in the bag. This means Ph1b is already a success because we know 1 cohort has achieved the target. Adding to that information is that the patients can’t get overdosed because they will just peter out like vitamins. Ph2 will definitely go ahead anyway. So how can we only be valued at $100m? Did the market miss this?

4) Their ‘incredible strategy meeting’ last year resulted in a very successful CR so I wouldn’t bet against them to achieve their objectives this time around.

Since the meeting, we have had a flurry of activities/news & I think we will continue to receive them regularly. Already we heard the research team presenting a poster at the prestigious Keystone symposium in Canada and the SmallCaps presentation last week.

So stay tuned supercendol, what has been a busy start to 2018 is just the beginning of something more exciting. Long term play… long term play…. Just gotta keep reminding myself of this!!! Can’t be happy with the current profit, must be a bit greedier…

For short term market movement, I’d just watch the commentaries from the TA experts in this forum.

That’s it, enough weekend nonsense.