valuation

hi all,
ive been watching spl for last few months after discovering it late last year.

i very much like the fundamental science and preliminary results behind the Dep products. i also appreciate fleurstat is a decent product filling a gap in the market.

the problem i have is that:
1) the market cap is already very large for a company which is in early phase 1 and phase 2 trials for the dep formulations.
2) the fleurstat product i doubt will have massive sales immediately after launch as the awareness of this product and clinical need is not well understood by most doctors (eg gp’s) and by women. i think the drug will take a long time and a lot of marketing spending aimed at women and various doctors groups/ pharmacists to build sales into the hundreds of millions range.

using ‘billion dollar addressable market’ hypothetical figures for the bacterial vaginosis market is a classic small cap hype technique that seasoned investors know to avoid and talking about billion dollar sales for carbaz/ doce is of limited relevance when we are telying mostly on phase 1 data at this stage.

if this company was valued at <500mill i would be happy to buy, but because of the two factors above and the current valuation for a company with zero sales and limited near term sales in fleurstat, i cant justify a buy price above a dollar.

im sure most of you on hot copper bought well before the spike above a dollar last year, but how do you justify the current mouth-watering valuation other than with FOMO based on takeover talk and addressable market figures.

just to be crystal clear, i am not criticising this excellent company or its shareholders who have done well so please spare me any vitriole, this is purely a genuine question of valuation/ entry price from someone who likes the company’s products.