@valueinvesting Mesoblast is still in the very early stages of...

@valueinvesting

Mesoblast is still in the very early stages of transitioning from a R&D biotech to a commercially sustainable one... first step will be to get pediatric aGVHD to market, which will happen mid/late 2019.

From now until then, there is still a lot of room for doubt and scare mongering as Mesoblast's larger programs are approaching pivotal trial results.

To this point, analysts and investors will not find it hard to identify and magnify areas of doubt/concern/risk to those who are willing to listen and act upon it (those unable or unwilling to do their own research).

CS's analyst report suggested 'potential' larger data sets for back pain and heart failure ... not sure where the back pain comment came from, as it has been made clear by MSB that the current phase 3 trial with 404 patients would be sufficient for product approval if successful (as indicated by the FDA during the trial design phase).

Likewise with the LVAD phase 2b trial reading out 12 month full trial data in Sep 18... CS say they are cautious that the FDA will want to see primary and secondary endpoints met before allowing accelerated approval, suggesting it is a high hurdle. Again, they would be in no position to view the data to date and would have no idea how the patients are tracking in the trial... so to come out and say they fear product approval will not be forthcoming if the trial fails is pure speculation on their part, and is contrary to the results phase the 30 patient pilot study.

As mentioned in a previous post, the areas highlighted by CS were all discussed in a negative light ... assuming the worse and unsubstantiated claims of more data required, where that would only be the case if the trial failed (duh!). Stating the obvious and implying that the trial will fail to arrive at their downgrade is a little suspicious...

Looking at CS's analyst report, you could easily eliminate all that doubt with a successful phase 2b LVAD trial and successful phase 3 CLBP trial... both of which are fully recruited and waiting on pivotal trial results.

So why the sudden 'caution' ? Did they come across trial data suggesting the trials are in doubt... or are they simply doing what analysts always try to do... that is to take advantage of retail investors, while they make all the money? You be the judge.