Substantial Shareholders

I estimate we've had around 120 million shares. (about 10% of total shares or 20% of shares excluding shagang) traded in the last 5-6 weeks and there's been no change in substantial shareholding. 

That's very possible of course as there would be churn but it could also indicate that some significant new players are coming on board. There's no shorts being reported either so it's only long positions in play. 

I do question whether or not Shagang is acting in good faith with the ASX listing rules. 

On the 25/01/2018 they had 48.82% of shares in GRR but in the 2018 annual report they are listed as holding 46.68% on 21/03/2018 but yet there was no change in substantial shareholder notice indicating they had offloaded shares. Under the ASX listing rules substantial shareholders are required to report in change in shareholding of over 1% yet Shagang have failed to do this. 

I intend to report this to the ASX as I can't help but think Shagang doesn't want any retail interest in GRR. I suspect they want to take GRR offshore and pick up Southdown on the cheap - the bigger of the options with Southdown is a reserve of 388 million tonnes of 69% magnetite worth around $60 billion. Seriously - this is a project worth a lot of money. Regardless Shagang need to comply with the ASX listing rules as there's never any shortage of stacking on the sell side despite the keen buying in the last month (and at any time in the last five years for that matter) and quite frankly I'm suspicious of the trades.  

It says alot about how pathetic private equity is in this country that no one has tried to take this over via a hostile takeover. You could buy 20% of the stock at current prices - make a takeover offer for 50 cents and then force Shagang to make a higher bid. 

Whilst the dividend could have been higher it's what I expected and at 25 cents it still 8% fully franked or around 11.5% grossed up. Given GRR add around 5 cents in cash each year after paying out dividends its worth sitting on for the dividends and inevitable rise in price due to increasing cash balance. If we get lucky there might be a takeover of either the company or sale of Southdown to put a rocket under the share price. 

GLTA/IMHO





GLTA/IMHO