Stocks In Uptrends

Originally posted by wilfran1pm ↑

Yes I agree ralom! especially if you are using FA for your trading decisions. I had a look at the CVN thread and they were all talking about the latest shipping news - something to do with a drill rig I think. I don't have the time and patience to even read the posts on most of the FA threads let alone do the sort of research those guys do. If you can decide on a limited number of technical indicators that can help you in your decision making I agree that you are moving in the right direction.

I'm trying to simplify my TA, which is a real challenge for me. I developed a scan/search to scan the whole of the ASX each day that I thought was extremely restrictive but I still get 100+ stocks to look at each night. I'm now refining my search even more so as to return only the stocks that meet even more restrictive setup trigger conditions. I am aiming for a 70% win rate with a trade reward to risk ration of 2. I'll probably have to develop some indicator for prioritising potential trades as well.

Over the past 2 or 3 months I've had a low cap speculative stock portfolio which got up to about 20 stocks on average in size. The portfolio equity was very volatile ranging from -$3k right up to about +$17k with $10k daily moves quite common. One thing I noticed/learnt was to watch the portfolio equity like a hawk. When I noticed during the recent run up or bounce from the XJO low on 12/02 my spec portfolio equity was flat, i.e. there was a significant divergence between my portfolio equity and the general market. When my equity curve turned down suddenly on 27/02, which turned out to be the top of the market bounce, I went in and closed (sold) all but 4 of my holdings, and I'm glad I did. I'm currently about break even and waiting for the market up trend to return. But going forward I will now continue to use my spec stock portfolio equity curve as a barometer for the future direction of the XJO.

So my current challenges are: to many potential trades each day, when should I take profits so as to maximise and smooth my equity curve (currently I think I'm waiting to long to take profits), how do I prioritise the potential trades that present each day. Oh and of course I don't want to have to think about it to much I just want my system to do the work for me.

Any ideas/advice out there?

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I think you are testing ways to analyse the market, which is great. Keep it up and there might be a system named after you...like "Fibonacci"

Wilfran Stock Indicator anyone??

Stocks In Uptrends, page-60

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