spx friday decision weekend, page-2

a few follow-up thoughts and comments from traders

twitters:
sentimentrader Jason Goepfert
Commercial hedgers went from ~$21.9 billion net short equity index futures in mid-July to ~$3.3 billion net long as of Tuesday.$$
13 Aug

editorials:
a contrarian indicator?
U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds


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..we have not had a sufficient retest of the low and of supply which may take several days to take shape and complete the W formation i am looking for.......thus the volatility and width of swings should remain high including overnights.....clearly the major positions are now either flat or nett long......we held above the 1156 area weekly basis, so, now, on a time basis, we can dip below that level, allow longterm players to buy the weaklongs and still gain upside strength when those transactions are complete as part of the W formation......i think we have now passed the swing point of sentiment, that is, the point where all highs will be seen as shorting opportunities and while they are tradeable on a one minute time frame or even appear to be the start of a strong leg down it is easy to lose sight that the players who want the most supply are keen to also wait the longest time to get that supply, they have no reason to chase and hold the upper hand in terms of where they can be positioned.....the plays that existed two weeks ago, likely, do not exist now.......imo