the sp decline over recent months has been frustrating. my...

the sp decline over recent months has been frustrating. my impression is that the things driving it are:
1) slowing growth in verio strip fees
2) forecasted transient decline in sales of xprecia strips as per company (after a period of customer stocking)
3) no news on j&j exercising its buyout option thus delaying cash windfall
4) sale of lifescan by j&j to platinum/ sino which has created fear that the cash windfall due to exercisingthe verio strip option will not occur
5) lack of any positive catalysts to drive sp up
6) fatigue from investors who have held for past 2-3 yrs and seen sp go up then fall to back where it started or below for a zero sum gain
7) lack of details on new products/ pipeline which creates doubt of any near term product launches/ approvals
8) loss of r&d rebate cf previous years
9) long term 15mill usd loan that will need to be repaid and if verio strip buyout doesnt occur there will be potential cashflow/ debt servicing issues.


considering all this above, i must say i thought about selling but i actually dont really believe any of the above issues or concerns are a genuine problem.

my understanding of corporate contract law is basic (so im happy to be corrected) but as i understand it, the buyout of lifescan has no effect on the verio strip option so although it potentially delays the option being exercised, this has no effect if still exercised before end of cy18 (most likely scenario) or is a benefit to ubi if its exercised in cy 19 (since we get a whole extra year of fees and a higher payout assuming strip volume growth continues). so i really dont see why the j&j sale of lifescan is a negative to ubi.

the usd debt issue raised by undertheradar seems like B-S to me given:
1) they are net cash even accounting for the debt
2) they have positive operating cashflow and profits that easily cover the interest and the principal.
whether the lifescan-verio strip option is exercised sooner or later or never, they are still in good financial health.

although xprecia strip growth will be lumpy and volatile over 2018, we are very early in the long term runway for growth; both ebitda and margins for this segment will increase as volume increases inevitably along with the global launch and gradual increased market share.

verio strips are still growing at around 10% per year so although its hard to extrapolate forward and see if this will plateau/ slow, the trend is still positive and its a growth market with diabetes prevalence increasing and more focus on close monitoring at home with regular blood glucose checks even for those not on insulin.

i think the company needs to do a better job in accelerating development of their product pipeline and communicating progress to investors in a transparent way to build confidence.

i may need to sell some soon for liquidity/ personal finance reasons (this is across the board for my entire portfolio not just for ubi) but i will try to delay selling until after the quarterly and hope for some solid numbers and a more positive tone with more detail on the pipeline from ubi management. i hope the recent sp decline will make them wake up and realise the need to communicate clearly to investors regarding the potentially bright outlook and the lack of concern re lifescan sale/ usd debt/ etc.