I currently don't have to deal with the emotional stress of when to sell my runners, as my trading theory of using "second wave volumes" to identify early runners, is not actually identifying runners. Why?
Let's use KRC as base zero. 10/11/17 came the announcement "6 meters at 37.6 g/t gold assay at Mt Remarkable". 3/1/18 mentioned the Mt Remarkable Strike Extension announcement on 20/12/17, and that an update on the metallurgical test work of their Vanadium and Titanium resources at Speewah would be available around the end of January. These announcements created waves of volumes, and were pre-cursors to the rise in the SP, which are clearly evident on the KRC Chart:
Observations from this, and the other runners:
1. There were waves of high volume, over periods of 5 to 10 days, and not just a one day spike. The majority of one day spikes come back to earth pretty fast.
2. The SP often does not rise during a wave. Think of it as the pros holding the SP down until they get their fill.
3. The SP is often held down for a one to three month period, until the pros are ready to let it go. Don't forget, time is money.
4. When it finally breaks out, sellers seem to be a little exhausted, which might help the SP run.
5. The first wave is often fluffy like "we've acquired a new project", whereas the second wave is stronger like "first assay results are great", which has a greater impact on investors.
If I apply this information to a couple of my dud tips, maybe I've got the timing wrong, rather than getting the stocks wrong.
MQR. 5/12/17 announced a proposed acquisition of 3 Canadian cobalt projects. 4/1/18 volume out of nowhere - "smoke". 21/3/18 Placement of $2.65m to fund the exploration of these 3 projects.
Applying Mark Minervini's works, we've been going through Stage 1 Consolidation, where you don't trade / tip. Drilling is about to start, and if this sees a breakout, we might move into Stage 2 Accumulation, which is where you trade / tip.
BPL - 21/12/17 AGM Presentation; and 19/3/18 Thackaringa Significant Mineral Resource Upgrade.
It appears the Consolidation Stage might be coming to an end, and if there is an upward breakout that would be the appropriate time to trade / tip.
I've now got Watch Lists setup from high volume waves that have occurred over the last three months, and I'm watching for any breakouts.
(20min delay)