US Market Update If you were trading the market today then you...

US Market Update

If you were trading the market today then you were trading the NDX. One wonders if a market that spends its time dependent on FB et al or oil is a healthy market. Speaking of oil, a build in privately monitored inventories has the electronic WTI contract down a bit at present. Watch that space.

The thing catching my eye the most was the 10 year Treasury futures. They were getting heavy attention like they were on Thursday and Friday and the yield is down to around 2.79% as of this note.

Quarter end rebalancing is said to be in play - Utilities were the strongest sector and IT was of course the weakest.

Meta analysis of financial media's proposed rationale for yesterday's rally will yield a simplistic result: A WSJ article about behind the scenes action between the US and China to prevent a trade war. Seems a pretty dodgy reason but anything will do when you're near the 200 day moving average.

SPX/ES/SPY: 2612.62/2612.75/260.60
ES YTD balance area is 2725 and the YTD flat area is 2675.25. That was touched today but as you can see it did not hold. The bulls want this at 2700 at least to feel confident again. The SPX is again below a declining 5 day moving average as it tests and retests the area which bulls and their machines are fighting hard to preserve.

Market Internals
Advance-Decline Lines: -1055.00. NYSE Breadth: -3.29:1, NASDAQ Breadth: -6.5:1. NYSE TICK: Cumulative TICK made a round trip above the zero line but caved during the last hour. TRIN: 1.54

NYSE MOC: ended +147M but showed negative values for much of the last 20 minutes of trade. NYSE composite volume was above average and slightly higher than yesterday.

Implied Volatility
VXJ8:20.45, VXK8:19.55, VIX:22.50
VX showed inflow again, especially the May contract.

Debt/Bond/Treasury
ZNM8 had a huge day and ended up +.44%. 35Bn in 5-Year notes were auctioned with bid-to-cover: 2.50. The 10 Year yield is now about 2.79%. I take this as a safety play.

S&P Futures Now