This a quarterly chart on the all time chart of BAR. I posted it this way for clarity purposes and I wanted to show its all time downtrend. They announced their gold strategy today and its well worth a read IMO. Of special interest is the table from page 4
They aim to build an inventory of 500 000 plus ounces and drilling starts in April.
The 50/50, JV with CNJ, Mt Thirsty Cobalt project is starting to come into focus on the back of the burgeoning cobalt price .
When the scoping study was announced in October they assumed a cobalt price of $70 000USD. The price at the time was $60 000 USD. They also estimated capex at 212 million with a four year payback after forecasting it at approx 60/70 million previously. The market was suitably underwhelmed.
Since then the cobalt price has jumped 50% to 90 000 USD and lately in presentations they are saying recoveries could improve 10% for the Cobalt and 70% for the Nickel. These three factors translate hugely to the bottom line.
Cobalt production for the first 5 years is slated at 1900 tpa. A 10% increase would make this 2100 tpa. Along with a cobalt price of 90 000 USD this would add an extra $54.5 million AUD annually to the bottom line.
They assumed a nickel price of 21000 AUD per tonne (todays price is 17500 AUD) and a production rate of 1660 tpa. If recoveries are increased by 70% then output would increase to 2820 tpa. This would see Nickel contribute an extra 15 million AUD annually to the bottom line at todays price.
So a total increase of almost 70 million AUD to the bottom line annually assuming the latest forecasts for recoveries prove correct and there is no huge associated cost increase in Opex. It might pay to wait for confirmation of these things.
It looks like payback could potentially be a lot quicker then 4 years. Must make the project a much better sell. Reported to be in talks with a Japanese trading house http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1644502
Importantly also it looks like Sean Gregory who recently joined as CEO/Managing Director knows how to sell the company.