Who's buying? Value investors or shorters closing their positions? UBS values it at 90c. Factoring in risk I would say that is about right. If everything goes well from here onwards, RFG SP is currently cheap. But we know there is at least some bad news in the tube. Ongoing store closures, whats with the cost of sales blowing out so much? The impact of the media storm on franchise renewals and new franchise uptake. The cost of remediating the franchise network. Franchisee underpayment of staff, have we heard the end of this yet? A Caltex audit reveals something around 70% rate of underpayment of franchise employees. The RFG CEO has so many fires to fight at the moment, something unexpected will slip out of place while his attention is elsewhere. This is the reason I bailed out of Vocus, and Seven West Media. Too many fires to fight, management not up to scratch. The vertically and horizontally integrated nature of RFG makes asset sales a big ask. It's also leveraged to itself in a few ways. GJs and commercial coffee sales are linked. Debt is linked to earnings by both serviceability and collateral. Earnings are linked to cheap debt. Debt will get more expensive, particularly if they don't meet their earnings targets. Add to all that SP for investors is also leveraged to earnings. What are they going to do with basket case Michells Patisserie. Is that cost factored into the forward estimates or is this another "surprise" waiting to happen. I would wait until this company is at 50% book value, but I don't that means with this company! It's something based on earnings. Until the SP drops significantly from here I'd rather watch the Rocky and Bullwinkle show:
Who's buying? Value investors or shorters closing their...
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