The vertical was, as rexsh said, the low risk part of Jaws. The...

The vertical was, as rexsh said, the low risk part of Jaws. The key drilling risk will be from when the horizontal starts to when casing is run, because that's when they're most likely to get wellbore collapse. When they announce casing is successfully run and cemented and the well is ready for stimulation, that's the critical risk passed for Jaws.

There is still technical risk around fraccing. We know the K4 frac failed and there's also the risk of fraccing inducing casing shear, which I believe is what happened to the Senex/Lattice well. Even if it's fracced successfully, there are risks around flowback (fines, pump performance) and then ultimately whether the well can dewater enough to produce economic gas rates. Then there's longer-term risk that will take months to years to figure out, whether they can get well costs down low enough vs well performance.

Corporate level finance and dilution risk sits on top of that. I don't agree that brokers are only writing 20% COS because they're worried the valuations aren't believable if they write 50% COS. This is still a very risky play and a world-first play at that.

The way I see it is like climbing a staircase. Each milestone passed is another step closer to the top, but there are still a lot of steps to the top. We're maybe a third of the way up currently.