Former PGM long, will re-enter shortly. Long CLQ.
The preceding post discussing a joining of forces with CLQ is, in my opinion, a productive line of reasoning and speculation. I have voiced that opinion myself, and I believe collaboration with CLQ is in the best interest of both companies...though naturally it depends on the opinion of both managements
and ultimately the feelings of PGM stockholders.
The problem PGM faces is not the viability of their deposit, which from what I can tell is first-rate.
The problems PGM face are that they are behind in getting to production, and in my opinion will not be able to effectively compete for capital with CLQ, which (again IMO) will deliver a phenomenal
BFS sometime in mid-year that will show unbelievable figures that PGM cannot match.
As a problem in finance, it is going to be tough for PGM to raise $500 mil or $700 mil or a billion when they will be unable to show better figures than a competitor less than 10 kilometers away. Furthermore, from the perspective of Australia as a whole, why should this money be spent here ? Why invest that kind of money, when a similar mine nearby can do the job faster and cheaper, and building another mine nearby will just create lower prices for both companies ?
Furthermore, the change of emphasis to scandium makes things worse, because the current market gives no cap credit at all for scandium, and the neighbor can kill your PFS by making the price anything he wants to, because he is going to produce 170 tons of it as a by-product, and can price it any way he wants to, and has the IP and connections to get the best customers.
It is suicidal for a nearby competitor to go to market as a scandium project. Friedland can make mincement of anyone who tries this, and has the connections to do it, and will be first to production with an amount of scandium that is much larger than current world production. With scandium as a by-product, the income is incremental to CLQ and they can price it anywhere they want to.
So back to the present situation. I think PGM holders would be well served by a combination with CLQ.
CLQ could give PGM holders an excellent deal with cash, CLQ stock, and maybe some CLQ options.
It would not be hard for CLQ to put together an attractive deal that gives PGM holders real upside.
Time to production, and management, which fairly or unfairly might have been considered weaknesses of PGM, would be transformed into strengths.
The benefit to CLQ is also substantial because they are protecting their local market from price deterioration, and the combined reserves would make an absolute powerhouse that could dominate for the foreseeable future. And the consolidation would spare Australian mining of the boom-and-bust over-investments in capacity which are so common in mining.
Looking over to the right side of my screen, it shows PGM with a market cap of $31 mil. This is a bargain. I intend to buy. But I am buying it for the intrinsic value of the very desireable metals
in the claim. I really do not expect a mine to be built.
I expect someone, likely CLQ, will acquire the company. This is my speculation, I have no knowledge of the situation other than what is publicly known.
P.S. AUZ deserves credit for the listing and the deal. The counterparty is a serious player.
But they raised no money. They gave an option on equity and a promise to buy 100% of off-take from Sconi. No cash went into AUZ.
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