I would see marketing expense as once off, and it would be a huge surprise if the marketing expense can immediately materialise into sales growth within the same FY.
Sales would be important. I imagine that NPAT or EPS may not bring any surprise this year beyond most analyst forecast. I believe the market will look past that and focus on what Fonterra Alliance mean to the business from 2019 onwards.
EPS growth to 21cps+ this year will be good enough to justify a share price in circa of $17.
I would watch for Sales growth and gross margin and pay less attention to Operating margin and NPAT this year. Marketing cost is just one of those things where......nobody can accurately evaluate the return on the advertisement.
Revenue, COGS, strategic goal in 2019 and beyond would be my main focus.
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