Capex for 2018 was recently outlined. Approx $500 mm for C,...

Capex for 2018 was recently outlined.

Approx $500 mm for C, nearly $100mm for PH and about $60 mm other incl WM, which leaves about $70 mm from Dec cash before AVB.

I would assume free cash generation of at least $300mm before capex this year leaving around $150 mm for dividends and carry over for 2019 Capex.

I suspect that capital will be tight by late 2019, but yet to be convinced it cannot be covered from cashflow, provided no major new committments are made for 2019.

I am not aware of any intention of OZL to carry any power infrastructure on balance sheet, but I stand to be corrected. I would have expected this to be provided by third parties as is the norm, with contractual committments only by OZL.

Can’t discount the possibility of OZL falling back to $7 (or of AVB falling back to say 10), esp if AVB dissapoints, or a major problem at C. Would however personally prefer my chances with OZL than AVB.

EL