RFG retail food group limited

Well done on changing tack based on new information - it's never...

  1. 855 Posts.
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    Well done on changing tack based on new information - it's never an easy thing to do as an investor.

    I generally agree with your comments, but where i disagree is your assumption that raising $100m @ $1.80 could have easily been accomplished a few months back. They would have had to get someone to underwrite the equity raise to make it worthwhile, and that discussion would have gone something like this:

    RFG: "Hi, we're over leveraged and would like to raise $100m to pay down debt".

    Banker/underwriter: "Sure, we can help. What are your earnings and cash flows likely to be over the next 12-18 months? Investors need this information so we can fairly price the offering and we can assess underwriting risk."

    RFG: "Absolutely no idea whatsoever - our business model is completely broken, earnings are in free fall, and we have no reasonable basis to provide any earnings forecasts, sorry."

    Banker/underwriter: "OK, sorry to hear that. Well, come back to us once you've got an idea what your sustainable earnings are, and we'll do the equity raise for you."

    Unfortunately, raising equity isn't just a case of passing the hat around and magically gathering money. It has a cost, a process needs to be followed, and investors generally like to understand what they're buying when you're asking them for money. As things stand presently with RFG, investors have absolutely no idea what the sustainable earnings for this business are, so it's very difficult to raise equity.
 
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