My opinion is, it was a combination of:
1. Loyalty options
2. PFS
3. Low number of shares on offer making it extremely easy to influence the SP
4. Big investors (or even directors themselves) wanting to get more of ARL
To use an analogy, the loyalty options created a "tree full of fruits" scenario. All those "fruits" would've been extremely "loose", very easy to dislodge as the holders stood to make a tidy quick profit based on the SP back when it started to fall. All it took was a little shake of the tree, and those fruits would've fallen.
Of course, the PFS helped. Let's face it, since when has a PFS been "great news"? It talks about how much money that needs to be spent to do "something"... some people just don't look at what that "something" is, they only look at the costs.
And so it has come to pass. The company had offered up a chance to retail holders to be deeply involved in the development of the company by offering the loyalty options, and the result is this selloff. I've been on stocks where retail holders went ballistic when the company did a CR to instos, complaining that retail holders were not given a chance to get in on the action. After this debacle, there's no way I would ever fault a company for going the CR route.
Personally, I think there's more selling to come from the loyalty holders. If I had the cash, I would of course buy more. At this price with the IGV, ARL is impossibly undervalued. There's no way anyone can convince me that all that Cobalt + Nickel + Gold that ARL is sitting on is worth only AUD$80M? The sellers who got us here have made a big mistake in my opinion!
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