OGX Chart, page-123

Well I spent a good portion of this afternoon reading through the other OGX active threads. The general theme seemed to start with despair, then moved to indignation and anger, and then finished on reflection and even ended on a slightly positive note. So I thought I would do a bit of reflection myself, a review of OGX’s SP history that is (see Weekly Chart of OGX below).



I’ve been told in the past that you need to look at longer term weekly charts to get an idea of where significant support and resistance levels lie. So looking at the weekly chart you can see that the 6c level (read these as arears rather than specific price levels) provided support for the SP breakout back in July 2015, and then resistance through most of 2016 at the large stopping volume level that occurred in late 2016. The other significant level is the 13c level. This level provided long term support back in the first half of 2016. It is also the 50% retracement level of the SP plunge from its high of 23c to 24c in July 2016 to its low of around 2c in October 2017. Hold on, it’s also the level at which the recent breakout impulse move stopped in March 2018. Yes I’m starting to think that this 13c level (area) is more than significant! I think that the market will demand that OGX Management prove that they can in fact extract the gold that they know is there, before any significant re-rate of the SP occurs. I’m saying that they can’t, just that it appears that the long term shareholders aren’t convinced yet.

Looking at the daily chart (see chart below) you can see how these levels have come into play, 13c resistance and 6c support. The 50% retracement level of the 2018 move up initially held but was broken today. The high volume of today’s bar (candle) and the fact that the SP closed very near the high of today’s range is positive, but it is also a warning. If the low of today’s bar and the 6c level is broken I would be expecting lower SP levels to follow. The positive view, and my expectation, is that the SP will bounce back up into the 7.5c to 10c range again and move sideways for some time. After that I think the direction of the SP will depend on OGX Management providing the proof regarding physical gold sold on market.



For me it’s now a wait and see game. The red and blue moving averages you can see on the daily chart are an indication to me of the nature of the trend; i.e. up from about mid January 2018, potential trend change to down in mid March. The current state I think is obvious – indecision! For now I think I’ll just let my Chart software search through the 2000 odd stocks on the ASX each day looking for potential trades on stocks that exhibit the moving average price pattern that OGX had in the January-February 2018 period. For those holding or trading through this indecisive and volatile period good luck to you all.

p.s. I hope that one lesson all HC readers have learnt from this thread is to be very wary of what I referred to in my last post as “feel good” charts and "feel good" technical analysis.