Nickel prices

Nickel Outlook 2018:



According to Andrew Mitchell, principal nickel analyst at Wood Mackenzie, next year will likely bring another deficit and an average annual price of $11,000.

“There is unlikely to be any new project development during 2018, although there is no question that the electric vehicle hype has rejuvenated interest in nickel as a commodity. Our view is that the market will be in deficit, and that on average prices for 2018 will be higher than the average for 2017,” he said in conversation with the Investing News Network.

Do You Want to Know Which Base Metal to Invest in Other firms have similar views. In FocusEconomics‘ latest report, panelists said they see benchmark LME nickel prices averaging $11,111 in Q4 2018. For the year as a whole, they gave a maximum price forecast of $13,349 and a minimum price of $9,800.

Meanwhile, Scotiabankis calling for an average nickel spot price of $5 per pound, up from $4.65 in 2017. It notes that “high inventories have insulated the market from the growing supply deficit, though we see gradual gains through the forecast horizon.” Read on to learn more about the nickel outlook for 2018.

Nickel outlook 2018: Supply
Macquarie (ASX:MQG) believes that while the nickel market is currently in deficit, supply is set to rise. The bank predicts that Chinese nickel pig iron output could jump to 500,000 MT in 2018, up from 407,000 MT in 2017, due to the loosening of Indonesia’s ban on raw ore exports. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s nickel pig iron production could rise to 240,000 MT in 2018 up from 90,000 MT in 2016.

Speaking to Bloomberg in November, Ian Roper, head of international business at Shanghai Metals Market, said, “looking forward we’re very concerned about this vast flood of nickel ore.” He expects the increase in supply to outpace battery developments, making it difficult to be “fundamentally bullish.”

That said, supply cuts are being made elsewhere. Mitchell said “the reconfiguration of Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Canadian assets and the future of its New Caledonia operation … will be interesting to watch.” Vale recently announced plans to reduce its nickel output by 15 percent in 2018; the company also noted that it continues to search for an investor for its New Caledonia nickel mine.

For his part, Junior Stock Review founder Brian Leni said investors should watch the actions of Philippines closely. The country’s new president is currently deciding whether to uphold a ban on open-pit mining; he is also determining whether suspended mines should come back online.

Leni noted that investors should “watch for continued drops in [nickel] inventory levels, as it’s my guess that the Philippine government will move forward with its decision to ban or partially ban nickel ore exports.” He said FPX Nickel (TSXV:FPX), a company he owns shares in, is one stock to watch.
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Mule