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my ammended CLA valuation, page-46

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8horse

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01/04/18

12:04

Post #: 32157844
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Originally posted by phuket guy ↑

Re-my new valuation all good/valid points youvebrought up. So Lets apply them to my first valuation model then?. look Im not just trying to spruik it -Im also actually really trying to figure out what CLA shares can realistically get to. (I have millions and millions of them now!)

8 horse- yes the highest rack rate Namibian corporate tax is 37% but there are so many tax breaks and loopholes (including one I believe for just developing in the Opuwo region as govt wants more work/ economy up there in the north.-many others re-walvis bay processing stuff is tax free- amortisation of the plant is also gonna be a huge break -and several other incentives accounting games to play etc - so I personally figured a net 20% is fair -but we can make it 25% then if you want to be more conservative? (but not 37 thats too high) well have some smart cookies working to reduce it.

As per Co recovery -first run it was 88% but optimisation is now underway and like everything well surely get better results with practice. -we should get to about 92-94% IMO -so I think Im not off averaging at 90% OK ??.

Capex for plant you say it will be 200 mill -mfor me thats possible but I think way too low - I already conservatively guessed (as I noted) at 4-500 million AUD. Lets say its 350 mill then? (it is more easy sulphide hosted resource) so cheaper than most other asx Co plants - -So on a 15 year loan at 8% well need to repay about - 23 mill a year plus interest. so around 30 mill a year and reducing so lets cal it 28 mill average over 15 years -ok?

The Production figures we seem to agree on- for prices lets use my last model as I feel they re realistic?? - and this is just intelligent guessing ...of course lower prices the share is worth less ,higher its worth more .(we all know that).

so if we can reasonably expect to make 340 mill gross operating profit for CLA off a 2mtpa - (see my valuation model)

lets take off 28 mill for repaying Capex loan for plant.= leaves 312 mill EBITDA
then lets take 25% off that for tax= leaves CLA -AUD 234 mill NPAT

lets also be more conservative and say fully diluted there could be 850 million shares on issue not 800mill (as last model) -theres now only 580 mill +oppies.(many of which have stiff conditions attached) so:I am roughly allowing for 150 mill new shares issued at say around 25 cents average so CLA can raise AUD 30 -40 mill more cash pre-production in JV.? is that reasonable? I think so. So in this case
$233 NPAT divided by 850 mill shares = 27.5 cents a share earnings per year.

lets be more conservative yet again and just go to a 10X PE model? ok? and we get to a probable share price of around $2.72 a share!! (This should be by around 2021 -3-4 years out)

But to be fair if we've already taken off capex repayments /tax etc.. Im thinking we should just discount that 50% when the three main pieces of the puzzle have fallen into in place (1.OK Jorc/2. ok SS/ 3.JV announcement with major co)...hopefully by year end.

-and we still get to a 1.38$ a share!!!!

guys/gls call me old fashioned but if 1.&2 as above happen in next 2 months I think 14 cents is gonna be looking real cheap. try three times that? ...no? ok certainly double that-28-30 cents a share near term target then double that again when no 3 hopefuly happens late summer (my guess) and were at 60 cents - and then just gradually moving up (with lost of ups and down we cant explain on the way) to 2$ a share over next 3 years as BB and the first class experienced team slowly tick all the boxes and jump through all the hoops. (fingers crossed).

disclaimer: this scenario as I previously said imagines no unexpectedly bad things hitting us from left field (and this can always happen in this game) - but it also imagines no unexpectedly good things coming from right field (and theres probably a much higher probability of that in my books)... I was just thinking yesterday ...heres another unexepected good scenario......in Hk next week BB could link up with one or two Chinese groups of punters...those guys are mental...I love them to death in business...They have real cojones ...thy make us white boys look like total whimps....they could easily get behind this stock and push the price to 1$ on huge volume in 2weeks even with no announcements at all!!!!- you know thats true. I've personally seen it 50 times before- Personnaly I don't expect it because as far as i can see no big Chinese ringleader is set with enough shares to bother to get the boys piling in . But say if in next CR you see a block going to a Chinese or HK finance house then pin back your ears cos we could be going for a rocket ship ride.

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Good work,
But reality doesn’t work that way. You can check out FMG, PLS (capex, commodity price using for feasibility study, enterprise value/ebitda etc) to get some ideas, imo.
Cheers.

CLA Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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