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Great analysis PG but I think you're missing one thing. Correct...

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nbbirch

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30/03/18

23:18

Post #: 32146720
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Originally posted by phuket guy ↑

Guys/Gals Im sorry to make another new thread (its getting confusing already) Plus I know I posted something very similar a week or so ago. But Ive since amended it to more realistic (and taken out the typos etc)to send it as a small report to some of my investors/potential investors.

First of course a Disclaimer: this is just my personal calculations and valuation. The truth will soon out with JORC/ SS but this may help any new people looking at CLA who want a valuation but who havnt been as imerrsed in its develpment and story/issues as some of us more intense investors have : If its too long excuse me -just dont read it. I think its better posted and runnng around the HC paddock than sitting in my computer at home all lonely.

My current personal valuation model for CLA

Last year in June when the first drill results came in I felt that CLA could hopefully prove up around 100 mill tons +of Co/Cu and could attract a buyout in the 400-500 mill dollar cap range by end 2018. –giving me a potential share price target of 40-60 cents

But three things are now happening that are changing my mind making me even more bullish!

The chnaging nature of the deals we now see happening in the ASX junior Co/batt metals space - Whereby real endusers (car cos and battery makers) who are getting increasingly desperate to confirm long term cobalt supplies are now coming in directly (before big miners can buy themout) to do JV’s or streaming deals with ASX Juniors (ie: giving them money upfront for the capex to get mining in exchange for guaranteed off-take deals at beneficial long term prices.)
2. It now looks more likely that CLA should be able to value add and produce Cobalt Sulphate right there in Namibia – that’s the more processed stuff that actually goes into batteries – and usually sells at a 20-30% premium to normal cobalt and much more than basic Co concentrate ore.
3 I feel the cobalt price should go higher yet and stay higher for longer -possibly even a decade or so more.

So now I'm thinking CLA will now probably (logically) turn into a miner in a similar type JV with an enduser- just as the few other successful and large good grade/resourced ASX bat metals or Co explorers/juniors appear to be doing from the recent flurry of deals being done with end users over last months (see PLS/ ORE/ CLQ/ AUZ/AVZ/COB etc). So now I’m now moving my price target up to1$ +. .... This of course is based on JORC/ Scoping study and surrounding factors playing out as anticipated (a big caveat of course – but so far I see nothing untoward on is the horizon to derail them)

Why1$+?
Lets say International battery or car maker XYZ comes in and backs CLA with the Capex funding (via bank guarantee/ loan or JV buy-in etc) ....This looks increasingly likely as several are already in talks (Many are calling CLA already – not the other way around!) So CLA can then build say a 2 milion ton per year plant (2mtpa) - the processing facilities are already there nearby in Manibia and rentable. (Im just guessing The cost of plant should be around AUD 400-500 mill) – Note for a 4mtpa ...please double all the figures im using including my share price guesstimate!.

So iF CLA run a plant at 2mtpa of ore with current indicated grades and recovery figures that should make =
cobalt =0.14% = 2,800 tons x 90% recovery = 2,520 tons Cobalt
copper =0.5% = 10,000 tons x 90% recovery = 9,000 tons Copper.

By then I’m (personally) guessing that cobalt price scould be around USD 100,000+ a ton (looks likely) and cobalt sulphate say at USD 130,000+ a ton(already) and basic copper cathode sheets sell for around USD 6,000 a ton.

This bit is my biggest guess- and yet to be defined in Scoping study (due in May).... but from my research I’m logically and i belive reasonably calculating around 45,000USD per ton Opex cost to both produce and then process the ore to get the above shown volumes of Cobalt (Co) and Copper (cu)

On that basis CLA would make profits of approx. $85,000 PT on the Co and 6,000 PT on the Cu so:
1. 2,500 tons CO x 85,000 USD per ton =215 mill USD & 9,000 tons Co x 6,000 USD per ton = 54 mill USD This = total gross income of 270 mill USD = 360 mill AUD gross profit PA.

95% of that goes to CLA (5% goes to our mines co-owners the govt’s underprivileged Namibians fund) leaves = AUD 340 profit to CLA.

Lets imagine 20% tax = AUD 68 mill – leaves CLA NPAT of 270 mill AUD

Say there’s 800 mill shares out by then fully diluted -that’s around 34 cents a share NPAT.

I still believe CLA should have proven up at least a 60-100,000 ton resource by then - giving a potential 30-50 years life of mine at 2mtpa -so its share price can easily go to 10-15 X PE. So 34 cents a share income x 12.5 x PE = 4.25$ share price (with nice dividends)

- so lets discount that by a massive 75% to get current price as markets do- (this discounts any payability issues, repayment of capex loans, lower cobalt prices time/ economic/ political/ market risk and other potential unforseen bad things) and we get to $1.06 per share. –bingo!

Of course for this above scenario Mrs market needs firstly to see:
1.An Ok or better JORC (April),
2.An Ok or better scoping study (May),
3.A big name end-user coming in (late summer??)
Mrs market will surely then put the above 2 and 2’s together by then– so this scenario could occur sooner than we expect if the above happens:

Again a disclamer: This scenario is just my personal speculation only and imagines no bad things coming in from left field- But to be fair it also imagines no good things happening. – such as a much bigger resource being proven (very probable) - finding the feeder CO zone? (fingers crossed) - Co price going even higher (pretty darned likely) - or a huge end user who wants to JV to go straight to a 4MPT mine. – (Note a 4 mtpa mine could indicate as much as a 4$ a share price!!. )

Finally: Both CLA and the cobalt market both seem to keep walking steadily in the above direction ...step by step....and all the predictions our GM BB predicated doing this deal on in 2016 are all appearing to pan out just as he expected - So I’d personally say don’t underestimate how high this share could potentially go over next 3 years if the great almighty remains on our side with us – and of course his sub-lieutenant on earth BB.

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Great analysis PG but I think you're missing one thing. Correct me if I'm wrong but there is only 21% Cobalt in Cobalt Sulphate Heptahydrate, which is what the battery makers need. So effectively from 2520 tonne of Cobalt you can produce 12000 tonne of Cobalt Sulphate. At 130k/tonne our annual revenue would be in the range of 1.5 billion, just for the Cobalt. Therefore a 1Mtpa plant would still produce a higher gross profit than your estimate. Makes the mouth water doesn't it.
https://www.webelements.com/compounds/cobalt/Co-1_SO4-1_OH2-7.html
CLA Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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