There will likely be a lot of solutions in the mix. You are correct in your point that electrolysis and steam methane reduction of reduction of natural gas are not options for hydrogen production.
there are some new technologies in the pipeline you may not be aware of that will rip and new A hole in the current market solutions. A 70% improvement in production efficiency and no to little CO2 output.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-investor-presentation.4086787/#post-31921330
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