Back of the envelope guesstimates... If anyone has better numbers, feel free to plug them in.
AGVHD
Epidemiology: 50,000 GVHD / year USA + EU5 + JAPAN
Assume this is 80% of market: 60,000
35% to 50% progess to AGVHD, 21,000 to 30,000
Assume 10% steroid refractory: 2,100 to 3,000
Assume 80% market penetration: 1,680 to 2,400
Assume treatment cost at USD 20,000 (per Temcell): 33,600,000 to 48,000,000
Assume 50% gross profit: 16,800,000 to 24,000,000
Assume P/E ratio of 10 to 1: 168,000,000 to 240,000,000
Assumed contribution to Market value USD / 475M shares: 0.37 to 0.51
Assumed contribution to Market value AUD at 0.75c: 0.49 to 0.67
CHF
Epidemiology: 400,000 CHF / year in USA
Assume USA is 25% of market: 1,600,000
Assume 10% market penetration: 160,000
Assume treatment cost at USD 10,000 (scaling): 1,600,000,000
Assume 50% gross profit: 800,000,000
Assume P/E ratio of 10 to 1: 8,000,000,000
Assumed contribution to Market value USD / 475M shares: 16.84
Assumed contribution to Market value AUD at 0.75c: 22.46
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