I don't like creating new threads, but couldn't find any recent, relevant one to tack this onto.
The more I look at RVR since production commenced, the more surprised I am at the low expectations for the upcoming quarterly report.
The only reported downside has been a 5-6 day mine shutdown (Thu 1 Mar - Tue 6 Mar) and production being affected by heavy rains and associated power outages over the 2 months prior (Jan - Feb). Certainly not good, but vague enough to take a closer look at:
View attachment 1050208
There was only one big downpour in January (81.6 mm on Jan 16th). February had three substantial (56.0, 42.0 & 35.6 mm) and three moderate (15.8, 13.0 & 13.0 mm) downpours, but overall twice as much rain as Jan. March shouldn't impact the March quarter receipts - due to the ~30+ day payment terms - but had one substantial (73.8 mm on Mar 1st - i.e. shutdown) and three moderate (25.0, 19.4 & 14.4 mm) downpours.
The monthly totals were: Oct-68.4 mm, Nov-25.8 mm, Dec-13.0 mm, Jan-105.6 mm, Feb-206.4 mm, Mar-160.5 mm.
The production/delivery timeline to date has been:
- 8/09/17 Production of copper, lead & zinc commences
- 27/09/17 Thalanga fully ramped-up and exceeding planned throughput
- 10/10/17 First zinc concentrate delivery (w/ first lead concentrate delivery to follow shortly)
- 9/11/17 First payment received from zinc concentrate
- 31/12/17 Commercial production declared
- 25/01/18 First mention of first copper concentrate delivery (no exact date given, but was scheduled for Jan 2018)
The December quarterly included receipts of A$16.9m and operating cash flow of A$6.8m. This presumably only included zinc & lead concentrate deliveries for October and November (2 months).
The upcoming report will include zinc & lead concentrate for December to February (3 months) and copper concentrate for perhaps half-January and February (1.5 months).
Average LME spot cash prices relevant to the above:
- Zinc A$4,224/t for Oct-Nov and A$4,335 for Dec-Feb (now A$4,196)
- Lead A$3,225/t for Oct-Nov and A$3,271 for Dec-Feb (now A$3,072)
- Copper A$8,900/t for Jan-Feb (now A$8,730)
Full price table:
View attachment 1050232
Even if production was halted for half of February, receipts should be considerably higher than the previous quarter, which surprised us all (or at least me) with RVR's maiden profit.
