Everything here is publicly available.
My introduction to the space was from Resapp (RAP)
But RSH at $33m vs RAP at $104m market cap is out of control! If anything, it should be the other way around.
Sure the end market of a diagnostic respiratory tool (RAP) is potentially larger than asthma self-monitoring (RSH) – but it really is an embarrassment that RAP claims are taken seriously.
Although both acoustic based – RSH the first to objectively detect and measure the major symptom in wheeze – Whereas Resapp trying to diagnose respiratory conditions by coughing into a smartphone (um cough cough, seriously??)
RAP failed their US trials! And during current trials are saying tv’s need to be turned off and cant be background noise! So even if RAP pass current trials, they won't have a commercial product, because there isn’t silence in the real world.
RSH on the other hand have already worked out how to cancel ambient noise – and their product can be used in front of TV, café, kids screaming etc- see here if don’t believe me.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0u0XHGAGy4
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHow_6D8YH0
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hupmULmVjgY&t=136s
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssZJJN3HFmo
But the key difference is RAP have taken the incredibly risky approach of trying to tell doctors they can be replaced. Where as RSH have strategically gone out of their way to say their product is not for diagnosis, and is to be used in between doctor visits.
Sure RSH state their monitoring tool is more effective than the Peak-flow meter, but even asthma foundations and health bodies admit the analogue paper-based peak-flow meter (that kids cant use) is of limited value
I listened to Mario’s conference call on Monday and he appears the real deal – congrats to the board on selecting a CEO with adequate experience to reward long-suffering shareholders!
My other key takeouts from his preso
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The NHS desperately needs RSH, and is every chance of publicly backing them, providing a key first step in global medical acceptance
- The working prototype due for completion in Q2 appears on track.
- The market is huge! $256m revenue, at minimum 50% margin, from a 5% penetration of a very conservative initial target market that only includes children and young people from UK, Germany, US, Australia and Canada
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The OTC nature of the product and previous approvals means 2018 updated approvals will be a relatively straightforward process
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The company doesn’t necessarily need a distribution partner – can sell direct through Amazon/Alibaba
- Respiri can be to Asthma what Dexcom is to diabetes (multi-billion dollar company)
- BUPA insurance allocates $600 a year for glucose monitors – why wouldn’t insurance companies and/or health bodies do a similar thing for an asthma monitoring system that clearly will reduce healthcare system costs (not to mention save lives)
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Sure some investors are worried about the past – but as Mario said, 2013/2014 (first launch) was very early in the evolution of connected health – Fitbit 2014, smart watch 2015, and connected health devices have only really taken off from 2016 – SO RSH product is being completed at a time which could be described as a perfect storm of demand – consumers/health bodies/insurance providers etc
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The overnight monitor and big data monetisation both individually have potential to be more valuable than the first product.
I am no doctor (or rocket scientist) but even for my simple brain $33m is way too cheap for where this company is at, and what the 12-18 month potential is.
Earlier I was writing reasons why RSH was about to break out. It did, so no point going over that.
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