The Australian Energy market Operator has effectively doubled its forecast uptake for electric vehicles in Australia, suggesting that within two decades they could account of more than half of Australia’s car fleet.
This graph above was included in a presentation made to a key working group just a few weeks ago, and highlights the difference between forecasts made at the time of its annual Electricity Statement of Opportunities last September, and its update last month.
The changes are reflected across all three scenarios – weak, neutral and strong – which I guess are based on the availability and cost of EV models, the price of oil, and the consumer shift to distributed energy – rooftop solar, battery storage, and EVs.
The most remarkable difference is in the “strong” scenario. Just six months ago, AEMO was predicting 15,000GWh of consumption from the grid from EVs. Now it is looking at nearly 30,000GWh.
That’s around 15 per cent of total demand on the Australia grid, and to extrapolate the significance of that number from previous predictions, it could mean that AEMO is expecting half the cars on the road in 2037 will be electric.
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