Price projections
A month ago Morgan Stanley sent shares of lithium producers and explorers tumbling after the investment bank forecast a huge surplus in the market in 2022, resulting in forecast prices nearly halving from today’s levels.
The negative assessment raised eyebrows in the industry with executives criticizing Morgan Stanley for vastly underestimating the rise in demand, production ramp-up problems and bottlenecks with processing of battery-grade lithium compounds.
Morgan Stanley's bearish outlook was echoed by commodities researcher Wood Mackenzie which is forecasting a decline in the price of lithium this year that would turn into a rout from 2019 onwards.
Woodmac expects demand to grow from 233 kilotonnes (kt) in 2017 to 330kt of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2020 and 405kt in 2022, but that "the supply response is under way" and from 2019 supply will start to outpace demand more aggressively and price levels will decline in turn.
From highs near $26,000 a tonne in December, the London-based consulting firm sees prices averaging roughly $13,000 this year, dropping to below $9,000 in 2019. By 2022 lithium carbonate is forecast to average $6,500.
http://www.mining.com/worlds-larges...m-race/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
