Yes, I can understand your thinking and rationale but disagree with your ACCEPTance speech.
Have the fundamentals of AVB changed? NO
Is Kalenns valuation wrong/half wrong/completely wrong? NO
Has there clearly been a plan in place to minimise the cost of AVB to OZL? YES
Is the timing of this offer superb for OZL? YES
So then it really comes down to:
Do you believe that if the offer lapsed that AVB would fail to achieve K's valuation over time (regardless of a dip in the SP in between)? I believe it will [but with a new CEO and BOD!!].
Perhaps time is not on your side so you need to realise your gain now? Then go for it - sell your shares and naff off. I can wait around for a few more years easily. BUT you know I don't think we have to because Centro will get the guernsey and we'll be up to the offer price anyway.
AVB Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held