This is my surmise of the current situation:
1) premiere and cabinet will either approve or not approve Commencement of Demonstration within next 2 weeks. Personally I think that it will be approved as the Liberals are most likely going to approve this project.
2) once approved, it will take another 4-6 weeks to set up and then commence demonstration.
3) flaring of gas and trial will last about 2-4 weeks before results are made public
By the end of June at the very latest we will have a very clear position on whether product(s) will be commercially available.
If they are commercially available... well, do your own research on prospective SP value.
Is there risk? Absolutely... which is why big investor groups have not thrown their weight behind it YET... if this is approved by the P&C then I would suggest that this is a major de-risking exercise for these groups however the true value comes from the success of the flaring.
It will not take much to drive these shares up and respectively, down if the news is not positive.
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