I reckon these people who wrote this could have been talking about Silex?
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buying-stocks-that-could-go-bust
The asymmetric payoff profile – minus 100% on the downside but plus 1,000% on the upside in the case of Whitehaven – makes these situations more akin to buying an option than buying an ordinary share. And it’s to option pricing theory that we turn when thinking about how to value them.
Pricing an option
We won’t get too deeply into Black Scholes option pricing here. Like most complicated theories, common sense will do. There are three important inputs to the value of an option: strike price, expiry and volatility. Here’s how we apply them to equity stubs.
Firstly, the strike price. For an equity stub this is the point at which the value of the business is enough to cover the debt and the equity starts becoming worth something. For Whitehaven this was a coal price of about $65 per ton. Anything above that and the equity should be worth something, although not necessarily the $400m of market capitalisation at the time.
The second factor is time, or how long you have until your option expires. The more time you have to exercise an option, the more time there is for something to go right, and the more it should be worth. When it comes to the pricing of an equity stub, time usually relates to the terms and flexibility on the debt: how soon can the lenders force you into bankruptcy? Luckily, Whitehaven had struck a new debt facility with its banks in March 2015. The debt facility would last until July 2019, giving the business three and a half years before debt needed to be renegotiated.
And finally, the volatility or variability of potential outcomes is important. Volatility is synonymous with risk in the financial world, but when it comes to equity stubs, more volatility is better. Think of it as wanting the widest possible range of potential outcomes. Your downside is capped at 100% while the upside is unlimited. With thermal coal prices moving from over US$120 per ton in 2011 to below US$50 in late 2015, volatility was high.
Yes I reckon they could have very well written this about Silex!
Even the similarities between the price of coal and the price of Uranium could mean the difference, but I believe there is far more to it than that!
I reckon these people who wrote this could have been talking...
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