AGY argosy minerals limited

2.50%

4.1¢

Fundamentals (New), page-27

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billyen

4,518 Posts.

531

04/04/18

14:28

Post #: 32215090

Originally posted by BytheHorns ↑

No future dilution....

I like the cut of your jib but that's a pretty big call IMO

Stage 3 Capex for either 10ktpa / 15ktpa is going to be somewhere around USD120-160M.

My guess is Mgt will have to give up some equity to an off-take partner for Stage 3 funding a the remainder via debt & sales of Stage 2 output.

But if they can negotiate S3 without dilution then the projected 'ballpark' numbers look way better (see below)

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14 Column 15

1 Capacity t/pa Income p/t USD Cost p/t USD Revenue USD Profit USD AGY Earn in % AGY EBIT USD USD>AUD Shares on Issue (incl Projected) Scenario 1 Mcap (P/E 10) Projected SP* Scenario 2 Mcap (Sector P/E 15.52) Projected SP* FX rate USD>AUD

2 15,000 18,000 3,500 270,000,000 217,500,000 90.00% 195,750,000 253,793,790 900M 2,537,937,900 $2.82 3,857,665,608 $4.29 1.29652

3 10,000 18,000 3,700 180,000,000 143,000,000 90.00% 128,700,000 166,862,124 900M 1,668,621,240 $1.85 2,536,304,285 $2.82

4 5,000 19,000 4,000 95,000,000 75,000,000 90.00% 67,500,000 87,515,100 900M 875,151,000 $0.97 1,330,229,520 $1.48

5 4,000 20,000 4,300 80,000,000 62,800,000 90.00% 56,520,000 73,279,310 900M 732,793,104 $0.81 1,113,845,518 $1.24

6 3,000 20,000 4,700 60,000,000 45,900,000 90.00% 41,310,000 53,559,241 900M 535,592,412 $0.60 814,100,466 $0.90

7 2,500 22,000 5,000 55,000,000 42,500,000 77.50% 32,937,500 42,704,128 900M 427,041,275 $0.47 649,102,738 $0.72

8 2,000 22,000 5,000 44,000,000 34,000,000 77.50% 26,350,000 34,163,302 900M 341,633,020 $0.38 519,282,190 $0.58

9 1,500 22,000 5,000 33,000,000 25,500,000 77.50% 19,762,500 25,622,477 900M 256,224,765 $0.28 389,461,643 $0.43

Expand

$4.29
There it is.

Next time anyone is talking to Jerko...bring up dilution and you'll understand where I'm coming from.

I'm sure AGY might have to give up some shares but, it's going to be a fight.
AGY shares are golden tickets in my view and I believe mgmt. too.

IMO
DYOR!!

AGY Price at posting: 31.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

22 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 13	Column 14	Column 15
1	Capacity t/pa	Income p/t USD	Cost p/t USD	Revenue USD	Profit USD	AGY Earn in %	AGY EBIT USD	USD>AUD	Shares on Issue (incl Projected)	Scenario 1 Mcap (P/E 10)	Projected SP*	Scenario 2 Mcap (Sector P/E 15.52)	Projected SP*	FX rate USD>AUD
2	15,000	18,000	3,500	270,000,000	217,500,000	90.00%	195,750,000	253,793,790	900M	2,537,937,900	$2.82	3,857,665,608	$4.29	1.29652
3	10,000	18,000	3,700	180,000,000	143,000,000	90.00%	128,700,000	166,862,124	900M	1,668,621,240	$1.85	2,536,304,285	$2.82
4	5,000	19,000	4,000	95,000,000	75,000,000	90.00%	67,500,000	87,515,100	900M	875,151,000	$0.97	1,330,229,520	$1.48
5	4,000	20,000	4,300	80,000,000	62,800,000	90.00%	56,520,000	73,279,310	900M	732,793,104	$0.81	1,113,845,518	$1.24
6	3,000	20,000	4,700	60,000,000	45,900,000	90.00%	41,310,000	53,559,241	900M	535,592,412	$0.60	814,100,466	$0.90
7	2,500	22,000	5,000	55,000,000	42,500,000	77.50%	32,937,500	42,704,128	900M	427,041,275	$0.47	649,102,738	$0.72
8	2,000	22,000	5,000	44,000,000	34,000,000	77.50%	26,350,000	34,163,302	900M	341,633,020	$0.38	519,282,190	$0.58
9	1,500	22,000	5,000	33,000,000	25,500,000	77.50%	19,762,500	25,622,477	900M	256,224,765	$0.28	389,461,643	$0.43

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