I know Onspeed posted this link above but, I wanted to actually post BTH's AGY's MC est. chart on it's own post, as it's extremely important for all SHs to review.
I'm often asked offline what I think the SP can realistically get to...
even though I'm on record as having a $1.40 price target.
(
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/wh...790818/page-548?post_id=30327326#.WsOhOMNuapo)
BTH's chart is great because it
forces you to DYOR and look at some of the BASIC variables of AGY.
I actually think some of his figures are on the low side but, this makes his numbers more conservative.
From talking to Jerko I get the understanding that he's now anti-dilution. So I like to see AGY get some OT advanced payments and/or take of some debt instead of issuing more shares to fund future S3 CAPEX. By keeping shares under 1B, the SP will rocket and AGY's board knows this.>
As it is now...based on AGY only producing 15,000 tons and a multiple of 15 (a PE of 10 is too conservative)...
the highest price is $3.02
(if the Rincon/Enirgi rumors become true...and AGY get's access to a dramatically larger piece of Rincon via a JV or reverse take-over, then you have to seriously think of looking at 30-50k tons. )
I'm feeling very good about my $1.40 right now.
IMO
DYOR!!
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/fundamentals.3508506/page-684?post_id=30124895#.WsNOgMNuapo
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
Column 10 |
Column 11 |
Column 12 |
Column 13 |
Column 14 |
Column 15 |
| 1 |
Capacity t/pa |
Income p/t USD |
Cost p/t USD |
Revenue USD |
Profit USD |
AGY Earn in % |
AGY EBIT USD |
USD>AUD |
*Shares on Issue (future numbers ballpark) |
Conservative Scenario 1 Mcap (P/E x10) |
Projected SP* |
|
Scenario 2 Mcap (Sector P/E x15.79) |
Projected SP* |
FX rate USD>AUD |
| 2 |
15,000 |
18,000 |
3,500 |
270,000,000 |
217,500,000 |
90.00% |
195,750,000 |
248,821,740 |
1.3B |
2,488,217,400 |
$1.91 |
|
3,928,895,275 |
$3.02 |
1.27112 |
| 3 |
10,000 |
18,000 |
3,700 |
180,000,000 |
143,000,000 |
90.00% |
128,700,000 |
163,593,144 |
1.2B |
1,635,931,440 |
$1.36 |
|
2,583,135,744 |
$2.15 |
|
| 4 |
5,000 |
19,000 |
4,000 |
95,000,000 |
75,000,000 |
90.00% |
67,500,000 |
85,800,600 |
1.1B |
858,006,000 |
$0.78 |
|
1,354,791,474 |
$1.23 |
|
| 5 |
4,000 |
20,000 |
4,300 |
80,000,000 |
62,800,000 |
90.00% |
56,520,000 |
71,843,702 |
1B |
718,437,024 |
$0.72 |
|
1,134,412,061 |
$1.13 |
|
| 6 |
3,000 |
20,000 |
4,700 |
60,000,000 |
45,900,000 |
90.00% |
41,310,000 |
52,509,967 |
1B |
525,099,672 |
$0.53 |
|
829,132,382 |
$0.83 |
|
| 7 |
2,500 |
22,000 |
5,000 |
55,000,000 |
42,500,000 |
77.50% |
32,937,500 |
41,867,515 |
900M |
418,675,150 |
$0.47 |
|
661,088,062 |
$0.73 |
|
| 8 |
2,000 |
22,000 |
5,000 |
44,000,000 |
34,000,000 |
77.50% |
26,350,000 |
33,494,012 |
900M |
334,940,120 |
$0.37 |
|
528,870,449 |
$0.59 |
|
| 9 |
1,500 |
22,000 |
5,000 |
33,000,000 |
25,500,000 |
77.50% |
19,762,500 |
25,120,509 |
900M |
251,205,090 |
$0.28 |
|
396,652,837 |
$0.44 |
|
