Copper and Gold in Brazil, page-2

Hi Chris,

I own both s32 and ozl and knows a bit of avb operations in Brazil.

Firstly I think the assets in avb isn't as complimentary to s32 compare to ozl as s32 have several long life assets and likely to pursue tier 1 assets at compelling prices. Ozl on the other hand is seeking multiple operation in key regions.

Secondly, ozl management have done a great job of wooing the 30+% to accept this t/o. The no talk/ no due diligence clause in the offer literally means any companies who haven't worked with avb in the recent past of currently not a substantial shareholder in avb will not put in a bid. Should no other party come to the table and not reach 50.1% acceptance, avb shares will quickly drop and internal war break out between directors and shareholders.

Personally I feel the offer for avb is not a must for ozl, given the pipeline of assets coming online over the next 5 years. However for avb, the massive amount of cash required to develop its pipleline without dilution is impossible and value is created or destroyed for retail shareholders is anyone's guess.

End of the day I think this is s leveled transaction for both parties, the real and perceived risks of avb assets coming online without outside M/A is grossly underestimated by current avb shareholders.