One of the reasons I am comfortable being heavily invested in Lynas is because I judge the risks to be of low probability and the rewards the opposite.
However, I do see show-stopping risks related to the political environment (currently low, with a potential to move much higher) and radioactivity (also currently a low probability, with a potential to be much higher). Ignore them if you want; I'm interested in understanding them.
I can watch the election cyclone, read the rags, monitor SMSL and The Star et al and gather relevant information to gauge the political risk, but I haven't any answers to my many questions surrounding radioactivity storage, disposal, re-use, etc. wtf? why the secretiveness?
On this issue, ausheds claimed I "accused Lynas of manipulation", but then refused to explain himself. He has still not done so. Why? Because he seeks to discredit me, my input and any discussion, however valid, of any risk associated with Lynas. [As the alert reader will recall, he took the same approach with discussion of political risks, i.e., ad hominem bullshit peppered with dismissiveness.] Why?
Should I trust corporate leadership to handle the risk? Obviously yes, or I shouldn't be invested, but that doesn't mean signing up to remain ignorant; certainly not in light of what is at stake. This is not a trivial issue. If radioactivity escapes, whether in a wind or a truck or a flood or whatever, it's a MAJOR problem. (Wasn't there a truck that overturned back in 2014, spilling NdPr? sheet happens, jus sayin)
Specifically with respect to weather: Malaysia is not in the path of cyclones. I found no record of a direct hit. They get close, that's about it. The weather problem is the annual monsoon. Kuantan averages 3 meters of rain and >85% humidity. There is no dry season. The threat is flooding and adverse impacts on tailings ponds and containment structures. sheet happens; it may not be "likely", but it does happen.
With all due respect to the fact that nearby chemical plants could release something more hazardous to health: That's totally irrelevant to a Lynas investment. If radioactivity gets out, it doesn't matter if it's hazardous or not. In fact, I fully recognize the fact that Lynas does NOT represent an appreciable health risk, but I know that won't stop a tsunami of public opinion should it happen. And if you don't think that's a risk, you just aren't following along. The Malaysian people remember the very real nightmare of the recent past Mitsubishi rare earths radioactivity etc; they're still cleaning it up and caring for the injured. And there are always and everywhere politicians ready to create mayhem and spread misinformation for the usual purpose.
It seems like I'm not getting any closer to answers to my questions here and so for the time being I'll just have to continue to live with the risk until Lynas opens up, which itself seems unlikely. Weirdest saying ever: Ignorance is bliss.
Does anyone have a link to Lynas's Residue Waste Management Plan? TIA.
GLT
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