I feel like we might be talking past one another.
Lynas deals with radioactivity in a country hypersensitive to it, for very good reason. As far as I'm concerned, issues surrounding radioactivity are the largest risk to my Lynas investment, because it's a potential showstopper if they allow radioactive materials to escape. Perhaps a cyclone comes through, spreading low level waste everywhere. What a mess! Or they start manufacturing Condisoil and the process controls prove inadequate to the task of suppressing dust. Even if they could prove the contamination posed no real health hazard, would it be acceptable? Highly unlikely. Bye bye FOSL.
I'm invested because I accept the risks associated with radioactivity and Lynas seems serious about mitigating it. But having spent many years working with radioactivity (and having to stop work to deal with contamination issues), I have to acknowledge it is a significant risk.
There are many other risks of course.
Low level radioactivity is one reason the Mt Weld deposit is so highly prized. Do we know that the apatite ore is also low? Or the carbonatite? Or might that be another reason AP is being stockpiled? They mentioned briefly that the AP ore needed an additional flotation stage, but not why; is it because of the fluorine content of the host as I've mentioned or something else altogether? Something else to think about while we await the resource update! With most investors convinced that Mt Weld is "the best", there's a downside risk to the SP if it comes up short. For example, I want a
minimum LOM of 20 years at double the rate of processing currently planned.
Then there was that one-off report about doubling the processing rate "from 242,000 to 443,000 tonnes a year at Mt Weld, due to take three months to complete and be done by the middle of this year."
https://thewest.com.au/news/kalgoorlie-miner/lynas-to-beef-up-mt-weld-ng-b88744288z
I haven't seen these numbers elsewhere; maybe they've been published by Lynas and I haven't found them. Whatever. Could be misinformation from The Kalfoorlie Miner or The West Australian!?! What's going on with that? To go from 500 to 600 tpa NdPr, they don't need double the processing unless there's a real drop coming in grade or recovery or maybe they have even greater plans. I don't know and I don't like not knowing if I don't have to. Lynas plays it a little too close to the vest for me, at times. It's another risk I accept. Does it sounds like COP are on the way up in the near future? I don't know, but I sure don't expect another 17% bump at no cost!
Lots of risks. Lots of rewards. I dig both.
