I've posted this a few times, but there is an update on that...

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    I've posted this a few times, but there is an update on that chart you've posted here
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/climate-model-projections-compared-to-observations/

    Seems to me that Hansen's 1980 forecasts were too cool
    his 1988 forecasts seem about right
    and we've moved along a long way with our modelling and forecasts since then

    not sure if I've seen that Hansen model to 2060 you mentioned, but it would all depend on which scenario
    latest IPCC forecasts do include non-mitigation scenarios and uncertainty range that could lead to +4 degrees by 2060 (on a 1980-2000 base)
    p803 here
    have to say, that surprised me (and presuming I've not misunderstood)
    https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf
    Last edited by mjp2: 23/04/18
 
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