I would disagree that much is priced in. there is still significant risk around every milestone, including if the thing will even work or not. CAT signing definitely not priced in (next tranche is ~10m dollars at 20c so that is evident from the share price). We can expect significant premium to that 20c in the same way we saw a premium on the 10c they took up. Market is clearly pricing in CAT non-take up or at least a big risk factor on it.
Personally i think they will extend, not take up straight away, but we are all just speculating
The massive missing piece though is understanding the basis behind any commercial agreement. Without this, it is impossible to value based on future cash flows, so most of the big money wont touch
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