CFDA, page-24

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gsad1000

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12/04/18

17:30

Post #: 32417443
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Originally posted by Yiming ↑

I would like to recycle a post I post a couple month ago on A2M forum. The purpose is to roughly calculate the market opportunity that Bellamy will have after CFDA approval. And we can discuss the SP

The China registration approval will eliminate 2/3 of the existing small brands on the market.

The Chinese infant formula market in 2017 is about ¥114 billion RMB which is about $20 billion AUD, by eliminate 2/3 of the brands by new registration rules, conservatively there is $10 billion AUD potential market can be overtake by registration approved companies.

After CFDA approvals, If Bellamy can aggressively expand their sales in China, conservatively say take up 3% of the market, that is $1b revenue. (The reason I use 5% is because A2M is about 5% at the moment, hence, I use 5% as I see both of them equally popular in China)

Therefore, with CFDA approvals, the potential revenue could be tripled to $1b.

The current market cap of BAL is about $2b with revenue of $340M. If they can achieve $1b revenue, their market cap should be tripled to $6b. Therefore the SP will be $60?

may sound crazy for forecast the SP to $60, but anyway. All above are IMO only

GLTAH and DYOR

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Urmmmmm, where is BAL going to get all that organic milk from. Remember the CDFA approval is for one product, one source, not milk powder sourced from all over the world and processed through multiple factories.

Even A2M has a limit to their CDFA approval of milk processed by Synlait in the Sth Island.

BAL Price at posting: $21.21 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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CFDA, page-24

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