Good points. The issue I found prior to my investment was there wasn't much in the way of announcements inbetween the major fin reports (half year, yearly). Admittedly I jumped in abit too early on the hype going up - yet another investment lesson - so my entry closer to 4c while not spectacularly overpriced (unless the business declines) was definitely not timed well. If the business recovers as per any business cycle, and doesn't destroy cash or wealther in the meantime, then I would not think 4c is a far cry to recover to. Whether I make any profit above and beyond that I don't know.
Timing wise an entry in the 2s now is a much safer bet - so I can see where you're coming from. Keep in mind that the 1c value of fixed assets will likely decrease even in your conservative bets of break even (as depreciation cuts in). I think the main issue is maintaining cash backing levels, and the worry is the last report was dangerously close. I'd assume work per that report has dwindled so to make up the same revenue and profit levels they would need further work in this coming months. Potential with the Fremantle developments and housing body... but even that is still subject to development approval to develop the said land, so nothing concrete.
I guess near term impetus would be their mention of a) the overseas tendering being successful and b) gaining mining contracts on an uptick in work in the coming year. Both of which are quite uncertain, given they've mentioned acquiring a business for quite awhile, and given they haven't found anything yet after so long my hopes are down. That aside management seem good at conserving wealth and plodding on - so the main worry is order book execution and them just not being able to find anything. I might hang on to the next announcement of some certain work comes through, albeit potentially paying higher in the 2s (don't think it will run away, unless as yous ay they announce a major tender win).
That said - with your mid case scenario in mind - would a PE of 10 be a conservative for this type of mining /construction services business? I am not too familiar with the area. 10 seems mid ground and I'm assuming a conservative P/E lies in the single digits?
