I knew if stuck to my guns, the truth would prevail.
Electric drive is the revolution, not hybridization.
BEVs are the pure thing, but range extension will be appreciated until batteries can do it alone, which I don't think is 20 years away.
So in the meantime EREVs, which are essentially extended range BEVs, will gain traction; these come in two flavors: micro-ICE-EVs and FCEVs.
As I've pointed out in the past, HFC-dominant vehicles may well co-exist with BEVs well into the future (hence my big position in PLUG, though HYGS, FCEL and BLDP also present good trading opps.)
However, beyond being relieved to see you finally "getting it" on electric drive EREVs, when it comes to your rah-rahs for coal gasification, I'm much more skeptical. Pretty much just a bit of clean coal technology, it could happen, but I've never really been a fan. I'd need to see their plan for the massive CO2 co-product. There's some interesting possibilities.
---------------------------
As for 48VMHs, LOL.
"Show me the magnets."
The biggest thing those boosters will be boosting is the price. We'll be at "70% of the benefit at 70% of the cost (of a full hybrid)" any day now, if we aren't already.
Multiple motor generators? 30kW? They're not even talking about mild hybrids at this point; these are just degraded full hybrids. Regardless, it's just plain ignorant to be pushing this platform as a Lynas investor, in my opinion; these vehicles trade in an NdFeB-based traction drive for the equivalent of an e-scooter. e-scooters are a thing, I guess.
48V(M)Hs are merely an expensive distraction and delaying tactic while lobbyists push for lower standards in an ill-fated attempt to avoid electric drive, a diversion that will ultimately cost them market share in the electric drive revolution.
Furthermore, while I believe their pleas will fall on deaf ears in China, it's also possible China might give in, using the carrot to entice the big ROW automakers down the rabbit hole of increasingly complex hybrids that just squeak past emissions limits. Squeak, squeak, squeak, down they go. Meanwhile the Chinese are pressing their domestic industry to ramp up electric drive vehicles.
Just to rub it in again for the hard of hearing, I'll quote your own reference:
"
48V is an idea whose time has come but it costs more and moving to multiple motor generators, clutched integral drives, 30 kW/ 3 kWh batteries and so on to replace the full hybrid that does not plug in (HEV) will not make that cost come down though it should still comfortably beat that traditional hybrid."
["should"?, that's not very reassuring; and it's followed by this gem:]
Sober up, folks; don't drink what he's pouring: 48V(M)Hs are an sideshow.
KISS. And nothing is simpler than electric drive.
