Kalenn, I don't wish to undermine your valuation and I might be entirely wrong, but has your valuation of AVB taken into account the expected annual development costs and other costs not considered in the AISC for the next few years?
There are significant items, when added up will impact EBIT and subsequently cash flows for the next few years until either Pedra Branca or Centro comes online.
Expected annual costs:
Exploration (assumed $3m / Qtr) = $12.0 million
Sustaining Capital (assumed $1m / Qtr) = $4.0 million
Pedra Branca Engineering Team (DFS, then Execution until PB comes online) estimate = $2.0 million
Centro Studies / Engineering Team (Scoping Study, PFS, then DFS, then Execution until Centro comes online) estimate = $2.0 million
Pantera Annual Payments to Vale (annually for next 7-12 years) = $3.0 million
Historical annual costs (from Dec 17 report):
General Expenses = $8.0 million
Royalties and Taxes = $3.5 million
These expenses total $34.5 million per annum and are not considered in the All In Sustaining Costs (AISC).
If we continue with AISC $1.94/lb @14,000t, AISC is $60.0 million. This will total $94.5 million in annual expenses before either Pedra Branca or Centro comes online.
Kalenn, I don't wish to undermine your valuation and I might be...
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