Some more neutral or conservative forecasts this week in copper mixed in with other bullish numbers. For me the market is dynamic is changing due to the sustained period of low prices that have not supported current brownfield project finance (which means they won't be adding to the projected supply growth rate) combined with majors largely putting the umbrella up, paying off debt, good financial discipline waffle (see BHP).
Copper mines maybe making money now however reading the bulk feasibility studies on new western projects don't look great at sub $3/lb. New mines have been built and are coming on however i don't believe supply keep pace with copper demand following a sustained low in the resource industry. Add to that green energy (5 times? more copper intensive than coal base load) and the replacement of oil for transport with electric. It may not happen in 2018 but thats not a recipe for low copper prices. Saying that last few weeks copper looks like it wants to crack its 12 month highs.
Grab quality or a dog or two for 2019 imo.
Slide 96 is a good example, one of many that look ordinary sub $3/lb.
https://www.teck.com/media/20180606_Deutsche Bank Conference.pdf
(20min delay)
