Good article, here is another article discussing the current international scene...
“Rare Earths” Are China’s Most Potent Weapon In A Trade War"
Article goes on to discuss the fact that RE's are the hole card for China, they are the last bullet in any trade war. That said, it is difficult to pin down the exact nature and details of the tit-for-tat tariff skirmish occurring between the US and China and it might be prudent to consider possible outcomes...
IMO Lynas stands to win with any international action. If things remain on an even keel the RE market should continue to develop and grow, hopefully supporting a slow RE price increase...
On the other hand, if China decides to play their hole card and control RE's to the marketplace, we may see a rapid increase in RE prices. What this will do to LYC is anyone's guess but a rapid share price increase is probably to be expected...
So how much will China restrict RE exports?... They can either physically limit exports or they can place export taxes on all RE's to the US (and Japan?). Initiating export taxes probably makes more sense than cutting the RE supply completely. The RE card is the last and most powerful card in China's hand. Using export taxes would make sense for China as they can raise and lower the tax according to their strategy and current feeling towards the US...
Will this be good or bad for Lynas? IMO the genie is out of the bottle with RE's. The argument can be made that higher prices and supply disruptions may discourage potential platform developers. On the other hand, history has shown that the best technologies will prevail over inferior technologies and NdPr and other RE's are no exception. There may be challenges and roadblocks along the way but progress will prefer the overall superior performance that RE's provide...
At the end of the day Lynas will probably do well in most international trade scenarios but the most promising outcome will be a negotiated "truce" where both China and the US can continue to develop RE's for the potential they represent... JMHO...
https://www.globalresearch.ca/china...nas-most-potent-weapon-in-a-trade-war/5635157