These are very rough numbers, so don't rely on them. However I...

These are very rough numbers, so don't rely on them. However I thought my crap numbers were better than nothing at all. If anybody has an alternative view - would love to hear it.

ATM I think SIV are getting an underlying ROE of about 20%, excluing GG. I suspect they will make about $17m npat, after allowing for a $25% cost reduction in the unallocated expenses. (Alternatively these unallocated expenses could be used to grow the hospitality business faster).

Assuming GG ends up square, then the balance sheet excluding GG may have assets of about 305.6m, and liabilities of 225.4, and equity of 80.2m. That would be a ROE of 21% ish. Whatever they get back over time on the GG equity of $85m, would need to be added back on top. If SIV can grow EPS at 10%, you might value SIV equity at about a 10xPE of $170m, or $4.30 per share ballpark - which is roughly where we are now. It has tended to grow faster than that, and with focus I would hope we are looking at 15% growth and a 15xPE of 255m, or $6.53 per share.

Their liabilities ratio is about 74% ATM, and under my scenario above it would also be 74%. If they want to immediately reduce this to 69% (say), they will need to raise about $27m equity. If they raise this at $2.50 per share, (10.8m ords), then there will be 50m ords approx. My 10xPE val would then be roughly $3.40 per share, conservatively assuming that a placement may take place rather than a pro rata issue that I could take part in.