Sorry, not going to do that. I'm sure if you had something useful to say it wouldn't be too hard for you to repeat it again here for everyone else's benefit. Seeing as you are calling this as a screaming buy.
Just to recap some numbers.
Total revenue from AU operations:
FY2018 ($'000)
1H FY2018 - 31/12/2017 ($'000)
Total: $96,063
PIL: $83,254 (87%)
GL: $12,809 (13%)
Prior corresponding period (vs. 1H FY2017, 31/12/2016)
PIL: -$3,957 (-4.5%)
Prior period (vs. 2H FY2017, 30/06/2017)
PIL: $15,034 (+22.0%)
FY2017 ($'000)
Total: $211,273
PIL: $155,430 (74%)
GL: $55,843 (36%)
2H FY2017 - 30/06/2017 ($'000)
Total: $94,194
PIL: $68,219 (72%)
GL: $25,975 (28%)
1H FY2017 - 31/12/2016 ($'000)
Total: $117,079
PIL: $87,211 (74%)
GL: $29,868 (26%)
FY2016 ($'000)
Total: $237,781
PIL: $173,721 (73%)
GL: $64,060 (37%)
2H FY2016 - 30/06/2016 ($'000)
Total: $114,706
PIL: $83,212 (73%)
GL: $31,494 (27%)
1H FY2017 - 31/12/2015 ($'000)
Total: $123,075
PIL: $90,509 (74%)
GL: $32,566 (26%)
KPMG suggested that maintainable revenue for the Australian business was $205m - $215m. This includes an assumption for the GL business, which as announced by the Company is being shut down.
So even if it can maintain the same 1H FY18 PIL revenue ($83.5m) in the 2H, that amounts to $167m for the full FY. Add the $13m contribution from GL from 1H and FY18 total revenue equals $180m or $25m short of KPMG low state estimate. This is still +$30m on Grant's example just to be generous and to demonstrate my point below. If GL is being shutdown you clearly need to remove any and all future contribution from GL, taking this maintainable annual revenue to some $155m.
Let's follow the KPMG valuation methodology.
EBITDA margin 14.0% - 14.5%. Well, for 1H FY18 EBITDA margin was -22%, so only 35% or so off. Never matter.
Even if we assume that FY18 revenue still amounts to $180m, and it realises best case 14.5% EBITDA margin = $25m.
The next step in the valuation methodology is to multiply by 4.75x - 5.25x. Let's be generous and take the upper range = $127m (enterprise value).
You still need to subtract debt, and again, being generous and assuming the AU entity receives a full A$40m from the Watchstone case, that would reduce AU debt to ~$75m.
These are the New Australian Debt Facilities:
Refinanced Super Senior Facility (A$65m)
- A$20m currently undrawn (A$45m)
- less A$40m reduction from Watchstone Receivable (A$5m)
Restated Syndicated Facility Agreement (A$60m)
- plus $10.8m deferred restructure fee (A$70.8m)
- plus capitalised interest from both facilities when debt is repayable in 3 and 5 years time....
Summary
Maintainable revenue: $180m (not really), $166.5m if PIL 1H FY18 revenue holds
EBITDA @ 14.5%: $25m
EBITDA multiple: 5.25x
Enterprise value: $127m
Debt: $75m
Net equity: $51m
SOI: 69.5m
Implies share price: $0.73
So about 82% fall from the last close.
Don't take my word for it but my DYOR and IMO salvage what you can especially whilst someone is playing tricks with the SP. Lots of other investment trains that you recoup some losses from. Leave the hedgies to flip this to some other suckers.
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