"Dragon's obvious moves to dominate EV next decade" Do you think this would include dropping prices to hurt non-Chinese Producers? I do not unless it looks like multiple sources will come on line. If this happens price drop on their own unless China take s drastic action. Generally when the price is manipulated the people doing the manipulation get hurt, Short term they do well but long term it comes back. I still do not like 48 volt hybrids. (what I like has no market impact) I have flipped and now believe mild hybrids will be a major market. I will agree their sales will outpace traditional hybrids by a wide margin. US market will be interesting since all fed and most state rebates are based on Battery KWH size.
The one thing that worries me if Mild hybrids take over they use much less ND. Even if only 1 high voltage hybrid is replaced for every three Mild there will be less Nd demand from this sector which I believe is a major growth sector. I say this assuming that ND use is equal to KW capacity (or HP which is same thing). Maybe not high accuracy, but I cannot think of anything better to use that is quick and easy. Do you have something? I do not think it is worth investigating every motor design to gain a little accuracy, just my opinion.
I do not believe EVs will be a bigger user of Nd than hybrids for at least ten years more likely 20. Nothing will surprise me. Just need to wait and see. As there use increases more people will become aware of lifetime true cost to operate vs Hybrids.
I found your comments about La and CE improvements interesting. in very round numbers Ce and La are 75% of Mt weld. 60 % of what was sold in Q3. NdPR sells for $40 so a 10% price rise is price it adds just over a $1.20 to ASP. Now Good Ce and LA sell for about $2.00. You cannot make the sales figures work for Lynas if you use this high of a number. To add the same $1.20 to ASP La and Ce would need to sell for $ 4.00 Do you find this to be reasonable short term (1 year).
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