I was just answering a question/responding to an opinion, not...

I was just answering a question/responding to an opinion, not 100% sure of your point. I was thinking about longing ORE the other day, as I expected a bounce when analysts didn't panic. But I didn't long it - sucks is life.

I think from a macro perspective it is worth looking at the number of downstream processing plants (producing high purity product, not 6% spod) being built in China. The number is huge. I keep finding newly formed Chinese Corporate divisions building new processing plants, and then Posco in SK and others are coming along too. But demand is near definitely not growing fast enough to justify this growth. The market is nearly certainly approaching a Wile-e-coyote moment, and then we throw on top the Trump tariff uncertainty. A lot of production has been taken up under what are really call option agreements in effect, that have locked out other offtakers. China Inc can enforce contracts in Australia/Canada, but Aussie/Canadian miners can't enforce contracts in China. A lot of inventory is going to pile up in China I suspect, and then Chinese processors will be walking away from their offtake deals if they can, I suspect. And in the meantime we have non Chinese processors making offtake deals seemingly in ignorance of how likely it is that the "call optioned" production will be required by China Inc. We will have processing plants sitting in China doing nothing soon - once their (and their customers) warehouses are full, or earlier if they are smart.

This potential US market diminution hitting China Inc may be an advantage to ORE, SQM etc, but there is still a ridiculous and overly souped up supply response underway to the recent demand spike.

All IMO.