Mmm, i'm a bit under that. I got 2mt @ USD52/t (blended normal price 43/61 xinfa offtake) for $138.5m gross cash. You've got a 2.3% royalty owned by some of the old gulf alumnia holders, that's on a minimum delivery of 3mt yr 1 which is $5m. Costs of production 35/t for $70m. After debt and tax, I see $50m this year rising to $100m by yr 4.
They do have $50m tax impairment that should help free cash flow that I have not modeled.
I'm curious to know anyone else's workings, getting these projections accurate goes along way to minimizing risk.
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